With the Trondheim 2025 World Championships featuring a 50 km race instead of the traditional 30 km, the dynamics between Therese Johaug and Frida Karlsson become even more interesting. Let’s reassess how this added distance may impact their performances, based on their history at Holmenkollen and other long-distance events.
Given Johaug’s historic strength in long-distance races and Karlsson’s tactical intelligence, the 50 km format could favor either athlete depending on several factors. Here’s a breakdown of how their previous performances at 30 km races, such as Holmenkollen 2020 and 2022, might inform what we can expect at Trondheim 2025 over the new, longer distance.
Johaug's Strengths Over 50 km: Johaug has always been exceptional in races where endurance is paramount. Her ability to sustain a high tempo over long distances—such as in the Tour de Ski and her victories in marathons like Birkebeinerrennet—suggests that the 50 km race plays to her strengths even more than the 30 km distance did. Her consistent pace, particularly on climbs, is likely to give her an advantage over such a long distance.
Karlsson’s Stamina and Tactical Growth: Karlsson, now a mature and experienced competitor, will need to use the downhills and flat sections to her advantage, especially over the extended distance. In the 50 km race, energy management becomes even more critical, and Karlsson’s ability to draft and conserve energy for key moments in the race could be pivotal.
In the 2020 Holmenkollen 30 km, Karlsson used smart tactics and a strong finish to defeat Johaug. However, over 50 km, energy management becomes even more critical. The longer race could play to Johaug’s exceptional endurance, as seen in her marathon performances, but Karlsson’s growth and her tactical approach to drafting and pacing over this extended distance could make the difference.
Johaug’s Experience: With a proven track record in marathon races, including winning events like Birkebeinerrennet, Johaug is the favorite to thrive over 50 km. Her ability to control the pace from the front, especially in the grueling climbs, is her key advantage.
Karlsson’s Tactical Prowess: Karlsson’s challenge will be balancing her energy over the longer distance. Her ability to close gaps and take advantage of downhill sections, as demonstrated in Holmenkollen 2020, will be crucial. However, over 50 km, the endurance factor may level the playing field, making it more difficult for Karlsson to out-sprint Johaug in the final kilometers.
In Trondheim 2025, the key will be whether Karlsson can match Johaug’s climbing dominance while conserving enough energy to use her speed on the flats and downhills. If she can, another upset like in 2020 is possible, but Johaug’s historical advantage in long-distance events makes her the favorite in this new 50 km format.
